The numbers for 1998 are in, the trend is downward and the outlook is not very good for the future of Amateur Radio. This is the gist of recently released FCC figures on the number of Amateur Radio operators licensed by the agency. And if the figures hold, 1998 will have been the first year of actual decline of the total number of United States radio amateurs in the past two decades. A year ago there was a total of 719,331 licensed radio amateurs listed in the FCC's database. Twelve months later that figure has dropped to 718,241. That's a drop of 1090 hams or a .2% annual rate of attrition. And while it might not seem very significant, 1090 is more hams lost in the United states than are licensed in some other nations. Looking at the percentage rates gives even more reason for alarm. Since 1992 when the annual growth rate was a healthy 8.4% a year the trend has been steadily downward. In 1993 it had dropped to 7.3%. By 1994 to 6.7%. 1996 had the most dramatic drop to a minuscule .8% growth and now as we begin 1999 we are into negative numbers. And negative numbers means that the ham radio bands are more vulnerable to attack from the corporate raiders in the telecommunications industry. These are people who envision millions of dollars of profit by evicting hams from the bands above 50 MHZ and having that valuable spectrum reallocated to their use. It also means that the government itself might begin to think in terms of the millions or billions of dollars that it might garner by auctioning off some of our bands. Finally, on another level it means that there will be less interest by companies in introducing new equipment. As any manufacturer will tell you, it makes no sense to put money into research for new products for a market that may soon die away.
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